“Megatrends”: Tools and Analysis on Our Future
In an increasingly uncertain global context, a vast archive of opportunities we can seize and challenges we can face with our projects.
European Projects and “Megatrends”: For a World in Motion
The world is in motion: international news is enriched daily with events and reports that provide an uncertain – if not decidedly bleak – picture of the world to come and the future of Europe.
European projects are one of the tools we have to respond, in our small way, to these great challenges. Knowing what are perceived as “Europe’s great challenges” and staying updated on this debate enriches one’s civic awareness and allows for the realization of projects with a broader vision.
Today we’re talking about two portals dedicated to the analysis of “Megatrends,” which are the “driving forces” that will have a major influence on our future: two large archives rich in food for thought, in-depth analyses, and possible ideas for our projects.
The Sources: The Megatrends Hub and ESPAS’s Work
In our review of “Megatrends,” we refer to two main sources: the Megatrends Hub portal of Knowledge4Policy and the work of ESPAS (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System).
- Knowledge4Policy is the European Union’s platform that provides scientific analysis and tools to support European policies. It is curated by experts and scientists from across Europe and explores a wide variety of thematic areas: from artificial intelligence to behavioral sciences, from biodiversity to migration dynamics, from active citizenship to satellite observation, from frontier technologies to sustainable transition. The pages of Knowledge4Policy are rich in analyses, reports, studies, publications, databases, and tools, dedicated to fueling the debate on future scenarios and how to address them. One of its most well-known tools is the Megatrends Hub, a portal that systematically identifies and explores 14 “Megatrends,” 14 major “driving forces” for Europe’s future, further breaking them down into more concrete and specific aspects. This portal represents a conceptual reference point on the subject at the European level 1.
- The work of ESPAS has fewer ambitions for systematicity, but it has a more practical approach to informing and supporting European policies. It offers a very wide, dense, and updated range of studies and research on major global trends of interest to the European Union and is the reference point on the matter for the main EU institutions. Its goal is to identify and analyze the key trends and challenges, and the resulting policy choices, that Europe and the entire world will face in the coming decades. On the ESPAS website, you can find in particular short periodic publications (“Horizon Scanning”) on major emerging trends, broader annual reports (“Global Trend Reports”) and thematic reports (“Foresight Papers”), and a large archive of strategic studies in various sectors (“ORBIS”, Open Repository Base on International Strategic Studies). While not specifically addressing “Megatrends” as such, it deeply and thoroughly analyzes the same themes.
“Megatrends”: A Message of Complexity and Hope
The general message of “Megatrends” and these strategic analyses is one of both complexity and hope.
On the one hand, they highlight (should it be necessary to remind ourselves) the complexity of contemporary global dynamics, emphasizing how they are closely interconnected. The analysis they propose is very multifaceted and goes beyond the most well-known and frequent slogans or “buzzwords” characteristic of European and national politics, which reflect an increasingly polarized public discourse (this too is a “Megatrend”). While not a “new” concept (their elaboration dates back some years), “Megatrends” bring to light aspects that are increasingly evident in light of recent developments in the international context, first and foremost the importance of strategic and geostrategic aspects (and not just ideal and value-based aspects) in the formulation and implementation of European policies 2.
On the other hand (no less important), “Megatrends” convey a signal of hope. They help both to “identify probable futures” and to act to “support preferable futures.” They include many difficult, negative, and problematic dynamics, but also present many positive evolutions and solutions that can be leveraged to build the world of tomorrow.
The 14 “Megatrends”
- TECHNOLOGY AND HYPERCONNECTIVITY
What it is: The growing impact of technology, data, and digital connectivity on our way of life, socialization, work, production, and governance.
What it covers:- Big data, cybersecurity, technological monopolies, and quantum technologies
- Digital twins, home automation, and data regulation;
- Wearable technology, brain-computer interfaces, genetic engineering, biotech;
- Space technologies for climate, satellite connections, asteroids, and space debris;
- Electrification of transport, autonomous driving, and new energy sources.
- NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY
What it is: The growing demand for water, food, energy, land, and minerals, making natural resources increasingly scarce and expensive.
What it covers:- Economic and consumption pathways that are “sufficient” and sustainable;
- New forms of pollution, biodiversity loss, and new strategic raw materials;
- New forms of energy, reduction of waste, new deposits, and extraction systems;
- More sustainable lifestyles and eating habits;
- Improved capabilities, data, and indicators for implementing integrated policies.
- CHANGING WORLD OF WORK
What it is: The radical change in the nature of work, employment and career models, and organizational structures, introduced by new generations and the prolongation of working life.
What it covers: - SHIFTING SECURITY PARADIGMS
What it is: The changing ways global actors interact, modifying relationships, power positions, approaches, and consequences of conflicts, with increasing pressure on the environment and society.
What it covers:- Strategic autonomy, resource control, sovereignty, migrations, and militarization;
- Global competition for resources, increasing inequalities, and militarism;
- Adaptation to new weapon systems (drones, AI, unconventional), propaganda, and fake news;
- New technologies, business models, governance, and space autonomy, asteroids, and space debris
- CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
What it is: The continuous increase in anthropogenic pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, overexploitation, and environmental degradation, with dramatic consequences for humanity.
What it covers:- Increase in greenhouse gas emissions and global warming;
- Climate-induced disasters, deterioration of air, water, and food resources, migrations;
- Decrease in quality and quantity of air, water, soil, natural habitats, and biodiversity;
- Growing (but insufficient) sensitivity to climate change and circular economy;
- Increasing regulatory attention and grassroots and local individual activism on environmental issues.
- GROWING URBANISATION
What it is: The increasing movement of people from rural to urban areas worldwide, with consequences in terms of sustainability, health, housing, inequalities, relationships, and land management.
What it covers:- Increase in built and “smart” spaces, waste and housing management, development, and inequalities;
- Smart cities, prospects, and risks of using data and digital in urban areas;
- Environmental awareness in cities, mobility, green solutions, and investments;
- Mobilization of local authorities and citizens on common causes, also thanks to technology and data.
- DIVERSIFICATION OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
What it is: The rapid change in educational needs and delivery methods due to generational changes, hyperconnectivity, technologies, and information availability.
What it covers:- Broader focus (from knowledge to skills), hybrid teaching spaces, and new actors in schools;
- Hybridizations (tangible/virtual, thought/AI, training/life), critical thinking, and media literacy;
- New professions, online and AI-driven teaching, role of local communities and partnerships;
- Impact of rapid global changes on schools, training curricula, and teachers.
- RISING INEQUALITIES
What it is: The increasing gaps between people and territories, of various kinds (income, education, work, health, gender, age, ethnic origin, development, and prospects), despite significant progress made.
What it covers:- Erosion of social, ethnic, and intergenerational cohesion, new forms of loneliness, and polarization;
- Impact of green and digital transition on work and inequalities;
- Territorial factor on climate shocks and inflation, wealth accumulation, and polarization;
- Increasing gaps in the world of work, post-Covid, and collapse of social security systems;
- Social and geographical gaps in access to health and life prospects, mental health;
- Changing gender norms and values, but with persistent gaps.
- INFLUENCE OF THE GLOBAL EAST AND SOUTH
What it is: The shift of economic power from established economies (the West and Japan) towards emerging economies in the East and South.
What it covers:- Growing regionalization and fragmentation (also in technologies and supply chains);
- Multipolarism, trade fragmentation, US-China rivalry, identity narratives;
- Africa’s potential: resources, investments, regional integration, geopolitical interests;
- China: dominance in manufacturing, finance, and technology, political soft power, and internal difficulties.
- GROWTH IN CONSUMPTION
What it is: The growth of middle classes, or “consumer classes,” worldwide, with an impact on production and business, but also on resources and the environment.
What it covers: - GROWING DEMOGRAPHIC GAPS
What it is: Rapid global population growth (almost 10 billion by 2050) concentrated mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, with aging and population stagnation in developed countries.
What it covers:- Population growth (with disparities), fertility decline, and increased life expectancy;
- Growing differences between demographic pyramids, with increasing migration and demographic decline;
- Similar developments in terms of workforce (with stress in Europe on economy and pensions);
- Effects in Europe: poverty among the elderly, public spending and healthcare under stress, electoral dynamics;
- Effects in Europe: social, economic, territorial, and intergenerational inequalities.
- INFLUENCE OF NEW GOVERNANCE SYSTEMS
What it is: The increasing impact of new actors, state and non-state, and new ways of using media, technologies, and social media, on traditional governance systems.
What it covers:- Disinformation, political marketing, personalization, and polarization of politics;
- Role of AI on bias and decisions, data, biometrics, human rights, and data governance;
- Participatory democracy, civic engagement, and activism, role of digital platforms;
- Anticipatory governance, leadership and skills, open government, and “cyberspace” policy;
- Global decline of democracy and media freedom, rules and protection on digital media.
- GROWTH IN MIGRATION DYNAMICS.
What it is: The growing social and political importance of migration, with complex migratory dynamics involving an increasing number of people (the number of migrants worldwide has doubled in 30 years).
What it covers:- Drivers of migration: job search, “diaspora” networks, wars, internal crises, and climate;
- Public opinion, asylum seekers, attraction of skills and talents, demographic and fiscal dynamics;
- Militarization of borders, instrumentalization by other countries, disinformation, and tensions;
- Management of labor migration, agreements with other countries, effects of climate, and use of data.
- NEW HEALTH CHALLENGES
What it is: Preventing and containing new health challenges (often with “human” causes): lifestyles, mental health, pollution, aging, bacterial resistance, and new viruses, thanks to scientific progress.
What it covers:- Intelligence, data, supply chains, experience, and prevention against epidemics and super-bacteria;
- Impact of aging, chronic and mental illnesses – and scientific progress;
- Data and AI for prevention, diagnostics, and cure development, (micro-)robotics, and wearable devices;
- Impact of climate change, pollution, and environmental degradation on zoonoses and diseases;
- Emerging mental health risks: eco-anxiety, technostress, isolation, post-traumatic stress;
- Science “miracles”: gene therapy, genomic editing, mRNA vaccines, new treatment methods.
ESPAS Resources and 2024 Report
Since it’s difficult to summarize ESPAS’s work in the space of an article, we offer below a review of the sectors covered by its document archive (ORBIS), the topics covered in its latest periodic updates (Horizon Scanning), and a summary of its Global Trends 2024 report (available in Italian). We find many aspects common to what has already been highlighted by the 14 “Megatrends.”
Sectors covered by the ORBIS archive (by number of publications available, in descending order):
Economy, Technology, Governance, Innovation, Security, Globalization, Development, Growth, Foreign Affairs, Defense, Environment, Industry, Climate Change, Politics, Sustainability, Employment, Resources, Demography, Energy, Regions, Education, Poverty, Science, Migration, Research, Food Security, Health, Water, Agriculture, Integration, Transport, Biodiversity, Mobility, Space.
Latest Horizon Scanning releases:
March 2025 (Neurotechnologies, Diplomatic Non-immunity, Climate Manipulation and Conspiracy Theories); November 2024 (Youth Gender Ideological Divide, Deindustrialization, Family Structures); March 2024 (New OPECs for New Mineral Resources, Unknown Parts of the Biosphere, Artificial Moral Agents); November 2023 (De-dollarization, AI-Generated Worlds, Manufacturing in Space); June 2023 (BRICS Expansion as an Alternative to Multilateralism, New Sources of Extreme Inequalities, Radical Food Production Methods); November 2022 (Rising Costs of Geopolitics, Governance of Common Resources, Inactive Citizenship); July 2022 (Chinese Geopolitical Narratives, Radical Transparency, Rights-based Approach on Resources and Environment). In each release, many other topics are also covered, in a more concise form.
Main themes of the Global Trends 2024 report:
- Geopolitics: Geopolitics is shifting from cooperation to competition and conflict, with new threats such as hybrid warfare, disinformation, and the struggle for supremacy in space;
- Economy: Geopolitical fragmentation and the transition towards climate neutrality threaten economic growth, influenced by US-China rivalry and new regional blocs;
- Demography: The European population will decrease, not offset by migration flows, putting pressure on the labor market and fiscal sustainability; China’s demographic decline will have global repercussions;
- Environment and climate: Climate change is accelerating, likely surpassing the 1.5-2 °C target of the Paris Agreement, severely affecting the EU, which must consider the international context for its climate strategy;
- Energy: Global energy consumption is increasing, with the use of fossil fuels and renewable sources; the green transition is hampered by investments in fossil infrastructure and the availability of critical minerals;
- Inequalities: Economic inequalities and access to education, technology, healthcare, and climate justice are increasing, with social tensions fueling political polarization and potentially weakening democracy;
- Technology: The spread of new technologies and their convergence is increasing, in a context of rising expectations and geopolitical rivalry, with regulatory difficulties;
- Healthcare: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for a well-equipped healthcare sector, which will continue to drive scientific and technological innovation, addressing challenges such as antimicrobial resistance;
- Lifestyles: People are increasingly living in cities, exposed to climate change; technologies are changing work and learning, creating opportunities and risks, with diversified impacts on EU regions and economic sectors;
- Democracy: Democracies are attacked to compromise their freedoms, with attempts to prejudice elections and freedom of expression; participatory democracy and high involvement on specific issues are positive trends.
Notes:
<a name=”note1″>[1]</a> Many of the dynamics highlighted by the “Megatrends” overlap with those that the 17 Sustainable Development Goals aim to address. “Megatrends” and Sustainable Development Goals are different conceptual frameworks, with different origins and objectives, resulting from different reflections, organizations, and contexts, although to some extent complementary. ⇑
<a name=”note2″>[2]</a> These aspects, as well as the dynamics highlighted by the “Megatrends,” can be considered in the elaboration of European projects and demonstrate awareness and interest in the challenges that European institutions are called upon to face. However, with all due weight and caution: 1) what is reported in these portals does not necessarily represent the position of the EU institutions, which emerges directly from official documents, policies and strategies; 2) not all information reported in the portals is necessarily updated to the latest (extremely rapid) developments in the contemporary world. ⇑
Source: https://www.guidaeuroprogettazione.eu/megatrend-analisi-sul-futuro/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=aprile_25